Lithuania now puts 5.33% of its GDP into core defence spending — the highest share of any NATO member, and more than three times Slovenia's 1.61%, the lowest. Both figures are 2026 estimates from NATO's own Defence Investment of NATO Countries report, cut off 3 July 2026. Five allies — Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Greece — are already spending at or above 3.5% of GDP, nine years ahead of the deadline NATO itself only just set.

The target isn't 2% anymore

For over a decade, "2% of GDP" was the number every NATO spending story led with. That guideline is gone. At the 2025 Hague Summit, allies agreed to a new goal: 5% of GDP annually by 2035, split into two tiers. At least 3.5% has to go to core defence — armed forces and NATO's own capability targets, the same category charted here. The remaining 1.5% covers broader security spending: critical-infrastructure protection, cybersecurity, civil preparedness and defence-industrial capacity. The chart above shows only the 3.5% core tier, because that's the one NATO reports consistently, country by country, going back to 2014.

Nine years is a long runway, and most of the alliance still has real distance to cover. Twenty-six of the 31 countries charted here are still below 3.5%, including Germany (2.69%), France (2.22%) and Italy (2.10%) — three of the alliance's largest economies.

Why the Baltics and Poland are already there

The five countries already past 3.5% share a border with Russia or Belarus. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have spent since 2022 rebuilding defence budgets that shrank for two decades after the Cold War; Poland's 4.68% funds one of the largest active procurement programmes in Europe, including new armour and air-defence purchases. Greece is the outlier on the list geographically, but its spending is driven by a separate, older rivalry: its long-running tension with Türkiye over Aegean and Cypriot waters, which has kept Greek defence spending elevated relative to its economy for decades regardless of NATO guidance.

Iceland is a NATO member but keeps no standing armed forces, so it doesn't appear in NATO's core defence expenditure tables at all — not a zero, just a different category of ally.

One number, three definitions

NATO's own figures "may considerably diverge" from the numbers a country's media or national budget documents report, according to the report's own methodology note. NATO defines core defence expenditure by agreed alliance rules — including pensions paid to military retirees as personnel costs, and R&D spent on major equipment as equipment costs — which don't always match how a national finance ministry categorises the same spending. That's a large part of why a domestic headline and a NATO comparison table can quote different percentages for the same country in the same year, without either one being wrong.

A number to watch: Slovenia

Slovenia's 1.61% carries an asterisk in NATO's own report. A new Slovenian government took office on 4 June 2026, and NATO notes that Slovenia's financial projections from 2026 onward "will be reviewed and reprogrammed," with a credible plan to reach 3.5% by 2035 to be detailed after the alliance's upcoming Ankara Summit. Slovenia's current-last-place figure, in other words, may not hold for long — it's a government in the middle of resetting its own commitment, not a country declining to make one.

Sources

NATO, Defence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026), Table 3 (core defence expenditure as a share of GDP, constant 2021 prices), press release, cut-off date 3 July 2026, 2025 and 2026 figures are estimates. The Hague Summit Declaration, 25 June 2025, for the new 5% (3.5% core / 1.5% broader) spending framework.